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Asian regionalism stumbles over small rocks

Updated On: Aug 22, 2012
Tensions between Japan and its neighbours, China and South Korea, have escalated in recent weeks. In this commentary, SIIA Chairman Simon Tay examines these territorial disputes and the implications for Asia.
This article was originally published in TODAY on Wednesday, 22 August 2012. This commentary also appeared in the South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) under the title "Losing Argument" on Thursday, 23 August 2012.
Tensions in North-east Asia are rising sharply. Small islets - most unable to support human habitation - are the friction points.
These are long-standing disputes, with the Senkaku/Diaoyu chain claimed by Japan and China, while the Dokdo/Takeshima islands are contested between South Korea and Japan.
The disputed territories do not relate to trade or investment between China, Japan and South Korea, which collectively account for the largest chunk of the Asian economy. Nor do they directly result from a resurgent American attention to the region and a rising competition with China.
Yet, if tensions continue and escalate, there will be implications for the region's economic cooperation and security. The flare-up occurred around the anniversary of the end of the Pacific War, on which the perspectives of Japan and its neighbours sharply differ. This could calm. However, domestic politics are at play and, with each leader seeking to gain support, nationalistic claims will be hard to discipline. 
ESCALATING TENSIONS
Tit-for-tat measures have already escalated the Senkaku/Diaoyu dispute. Soon after Chinese activists landed and were arrested, Japanese right-wing nationalists responded by raising the Nippon flag over the islets, which Tokyo holds.
This then triggered street incidents across a number of Chinese cities, with consumer boycotts and protesters overturning Japanese-made cars.
Reports that officials stood to one side rather than seeking to control the protests do not lend comfort. Recall 2005, when anti-Japanese protests turned into riots and caused widespread damage.
It does not help that Japanese Cabinet ministers again went to visit the controversial Yasukuni Shrine, to honour fallen soldiers from World War II.
Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda frowned upon but could not prevent that visit.
Looking ahead to the General Election, which must be held by August next year, the current weak and fractured Democratic Party of Japan government will find it difficult to rein in the far-right nationalists.
For South Korea, President Lee Myung Bak's unprecedented visit to the disputed islands has already strained ties with Japan.
Tokyo responded by recalling its ambassador and cancelling a planned visit by its Finance Minister to Seoul. 
TRADE TALKS MAY STALL
Relations among the three North-east Asian giants have never been close and, while military confrontation can be avoided, other impacts must be anticipated.
Just in May, the governments inked an investment agreement to begin negotiations on a free trade agreement. Likely, the current tensions will stall that effort.
Instead of a trilateral relationship, Beijing and Seoul may find more common ground, with historical and territorial issues adding to their close economic interdependence.
When North-east Asian cooperation faltered in years past, it was the Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN) that led region-building efforts.
Now, however, quite similar disputes over islands in the South China Sea have been stirred between a number of ASEAN members and China.
The Chinese-Filipino stand-off over the Scarborough Shoal stretched into July, and the ASEAN ministerial meeting in Phnom Penh held that same month foundered on the issue. Questions about the group's unity have since arisen and ASEAN must improve if it is to play a central role.
While the United States is not a claimant to any of these islands, there are also implications for the Obama administration's pivot to the region.
TRIANGULATION LESS LIKELY
Some had expected that Seoul and Tokyo, as American treaty allies, would be brought into a closer relationship. But the present turn of events makes any such triangulation of ties unlikely.
If ties between Japan and South Korea deteriorate, the American presence across Asia may need new pillars of support. For these reasons, Beijing is seen by some to gain the chance to develop its own strategic alliances.
While we can debate who gains, the first victim of these tensions is Asia as an entity. As summits and inter-government meetings come up in the months ahead, it remains to be seen if anyone can usefully offer leadership for Asian regionalism.
With global concerns in the euro zone and the anaemic American economy, the hope would be for the region to sustain stability and growth. However, these incidents remind us of the fragilities and many issues which remain to be resolved.
Not least, more in Asia must begin to think regionally, rather than rushing to plant national flags on rocks and fan enduring and still incendiary differences.